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How big will the market for augmented reality and wearable technology be in the next 5 years?

Is this market currently getting traction in the venture or startup communities? Will the market take off in the 0 - 5 years or in 5 - 10? Let's discuss.

11 Replies

David Crooke
1
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David Crooke Entrepreneur
Serial entrepreneur and CTO
1. Very Large 2. Yes, I know someone doing HUD data for surgeons using Google Glass, and heard on All Things Considered of a similar pilot at a hospital in the NE. Cheers Dave
Joanna Miriam
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Joanna Miriam Entrepreneur
owner at Joanna Miriam Photography
I am in the photography world and we just did a 3-D movie poster for Capt. America. Check out the app captain America experience on iPhone or android and watch the video. It will blow your mind. We are hoping this will be a staple for entertainment posters in the next few years.

Lawrence I Lerner
1
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Lawrence I Lerner Entrepreneur • Advisor
Digitalization and Transformation Coach
The market is continuing to build and is already mainstream with devices such as FitBit, FuelBand (Nike - discontinued but the software is still around. Tim Cook from Apple is on their board. Look for an Apple branded product later this year), Disney Magic Bands and a host of others already in consumer markets.

CrunchBase is a great place to look at startup and other investments in wearables. Last year I wrote "Jailbreaking the Internet: The Shape of Things to Come" which describes the market and opportunity. It's a little tricky to carve out the numbers since some devices started as wearables (e.g., iPod Nano) and newer ones that fit over your smartphone (Square, TrendHunter) don't always fall into a single category.

My $.02 is that it is and will continue to be a multi-billion dollar industry over the next few years. However, you'll see some products like the FuelBand and other monitors become part of the smartphone ecosystem.
Bon Franklin
2
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Bon Franklin Entrepreneur
Co-Founder of Morphid
Google Glass had a largely negative reception due to how intrusive it is in social interactions. People feel very uncomfortable being recorded, especially when it may be surreptitious. There are growing calls for legal protections against this kind of technology and many establishments have enforced complete bans on wearables like Glass.

User interface of wearables is bare bones and is regressive from the control users expect with their smart phones. Voice commands are unreliable. Keyboards/cursors disrupt the usefulness of wearables. Small screens make interface difficult (android watches). Until neural impulse technology is sufficiently able to provide an improved experience with wearables, it will be relegated to a small segment of early adopters.

I predict it will be a very long time before interactive wearables are mainstream. And by the time it is viable, the technology will have advanced enormously that current paradigms of mobile UX may have been completely replaced.

Passive wearables like FitBit are different, of course. They don't have any of these problems. But obviously that is a very hard limit on what kinds of products are viable in this scope of technology.

For the next few years at least I think wearables will be like the iPad. Hot when new, but not sustainable because the lack of overarching actual demand.
Jeff Axup
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Jeff Axup Entrepreneur
Sr. Manager, Palo Alto UX Design Research Group at Bosch
The market is expanding rapidly. I personally think wearables will eventually replace the form factors of traditional desktop and laptop computers, so it will eat into those markets over time.

Global Market for Wearable Computing Devices Projected To Reach $30.2 Billion in 2018

http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/1757527

There have been significant investments in this space (see CrunchBase) but from my perspective there is a shortage of angels willing to support early-stage hardware wearable companies. Most investment seems to be Series-A and later from what I can see. (I am the CEO of an seed-stage wearable company.)

What's your interest in the area Joe?


Joanan Hernandez
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Joanan Hernandez Entrepreneur
CEO & Founder at Mollejuo
Hello Joe,

There's a Juniper report on which we contributed. It "predicts" AR to be used by around 200 million people by 2018. Is just a prediction, and we all know how predictions on tech end working out, right?

In any case, we do AR based apps (geolocation), let us know when you want to expand on the subject.

Cheers!
Ayush Jain
0
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Ayush Jain Entrepreneur
Co-founder & CEO at Mindbowser ♛ Chapter Director at Startup Grind

Wearable Technology is without a doubt a hot topic today and we hear a lot about the development of wearables on day to day basis. With Google's announcements about Android Wear, it is termed as a beginning of a new era for Wearable Tech. Everyday new Wearable Devices are being launched and market is flooded with them. But my question is "Who is wearing the Wearables?"

Majority of the wearables launched are based on health & fitness namely Fitbit, Jawbone, Nike Fuelband, etc. According to a survey conducted by Endeavour Partners in US on these modern activity trackers, the results shows that only 1 out of 10 adults (over the age of 18) owns it, half of the respondents who are owning it don't use it and one-third of them stop using them after 6 months.

It is being said that Wearables will soon replace the smart phones. But I don't think so. Smart Phones are here to stay. Firstly, there were landline phones with which cables were attached and which could not be carried anywhere. Soon these telephones were replaced by Simple Mobiles which had an added feature of messaging and could be carried anywhere. Then came the Smart Phones with features like Bluetooth, Internet Access, Camera, etc. But what still remains the primary feature of Mobile Phones & Smart Phones is the calling facility which every wearable cannot provide.

I think the two major barriers for Wearable Tech are Design & Fashion. Most of the wearables have standard designs with variety of colors and not designed keeping in mind the appearance. Most of the wearables today being health and fitness related, they look good in the gym but look out of place when you wear it in office or with a fancy attire. Let us take the example of a Smartwatch, they come in standard design and are quite bulky as compared to simple watches which might be the reason for such low results mentioned above.

Fashion may not determine the ultimate fate ofwearable technology, but it is likely to play a major role. If wearable devices cannot find a way to accommodate people's fashion interests, these devices may find it difficult to gain traction with many people around the world.

Jeremy Lautman
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Jeremy Lautman Entrepreneur
Full Stack Software Engineer (Java/Angularjs) UPenn Grad student for summer internships
My biggest problem with my Basis (health tracking watch) was power. Powering all of those sensors requires a very large battery (driving the bulk) and even so the watch would die after about 3 days. I couldn't charge it overnight since I was supposed to wear it to sleep to track sleep cycles.

I don't think more energy efficient sensors is necessarily the answer. We'd need to be several orders of magnitude more efficient to even approach the charge life of a watch. I think the breakthrough will be figuring out how to charge these devices automatically and without wires. This would allow batteries (and thus devices) to get smaller as well.
Joanan Hernandez
0
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Joanan Hernandez Entrepreneur
CEO & Founder at Mollejuo
Aysuh,

You're correct that fashion is a factor ion wearables. That's why Google made an strategic partnership with Luxotica. In case you're not aware of Luxotica, when you visit their site, click on Brands, those are their brands of glasses.

Also, the moto360 is quite a nice watch.

Cheers!
Joanan Hernandez
0
0
Joanan Hernandez Entrepreneur
CEO & Founder at Mollejuo
Sorry, I meant to write Ayush.

My apologies.
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